Wealthsimple Predict Is Live — Here's How Canada's New Prediction Markets App Works

Wealthsimple has spent the last decade adding products that traditional banks never offered Canadians — commission-free trading, crypto, robo-investing, a high-interest chequing account. On July 29, 2026, it added something no mainstream Canadian financial platform has offered before: a fully regulated prediction markets app.

Wealthsimple Predict is now live. Here is everything you need to know about how it works, what you can trade, and whether it is worth trying.

What Is Wealthsimple Predict?

Wealthsimple Predict is a standalone app — separate from the main Wealthsimple platform, though existing Wealthsimple clients can log in with the same credentials. It gives Canadian retail investors access to prediction markets trading for the first time through a regulated Canadian brokerage.

The app is powered by a partnership with Kalshi, the leading prediction exchange in the United States. At launch, Wealthsimple Predict offers access to nearly 4,000 event contracts — a subset of Kalshi's listings that fall within the categories Canadian regulators have authorized.

Wealthsimple is only the second investment dealer in Canada to receive regulatory approval from CIRO to offer prediction markets trading. The first was Interactive Brokers Canada.

How Prediction Markets Work

Prediction markets let you trade on the outcome of real-world events. Each contract poses a yes or no question — for example, "Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates before September?" The price of a contract at any given time reflects what the market collectively believes the probability of that outcome is.

• If a contract is trading at $0.70, the market thinks there is roughly a 70% chance the outcome happens
• Contracts start as low as $0.01 per contract
• If your prediction is correct, each contract pays out $1 minus fees
• If your prediction is wrong, you lose what you paid for the contract
• You can sell your position at any time before the contract settles — you do not have to hold to resolution

Every contract on Wealthsimple Predict has a minimum settlement period of 30 days, which is a requirement of the Canadian regulatory framework.

What Can You Trade On?

Wealthsimple Predict offers contracts across three categories:

Economic indicators — inflation data, unemployment figures, GDP releases, and other macroeconomic announcements. For example: will Canada's inflation rate be above or below a certain level in a given month?

Financial markets — stock index levels, commodity prices, currency movements, and interest rate decisions. For example: will oil be above $80 USD per barrel by a specific date? Will the Bank of Canada change its overnight rate at its next meeting?

Climate — weather and environmental events. For example: will a heatwave be declared in a specific region? Will temperatures exceed a certain threshold?

Why No Sports or Politics?

If you have used Kalshi or platforms like Polymarket in the US, you may notice that sports and politics — the two most popular prediction categories globally — are not available on Wealthsimple Predict.

This is not a design choice by Wealthsimple. It is the boundary of what CIRO has authorized Canadian brokerages to offer so far. The regulatory framework treats prediction market contracts as futures (derivatives), and the current approval covers economic indicators, financial markets, and climate only.

The 30-day minimum settlement period also exists for regulatory reasons. Short-term binary options — contracts with a term under 30 days — have been illegal to offer to individuals in Canada since 2017, when Canadian Securities Administrators moved to shut down a wave of binary options fraud. Every Wealthsimple Predict contract is structured to comply with that requirement.

Is Wealthsimple the First to Offer This in Canada?

Wealthsimple is the second CIRO-regulated brokerage to offer prediction markets trading in Canada, after Interactive Brokers Canada. CIRO granted Wealthsimple authorization in March 2026, and the public launch followed on July 29, 2026.

This matters because it means the product is operating within Canada's established regulatory framework — not as a grey-area offshore platform. Contracts are treated as regulated derivatives, and the same investor protection standards that apply to other Wealthsimple products apply here.

Should You Trade Prediction Markets?

The honest answer is: approach with caution and treat it as speculative.

Research on prediction market platforms suggests that most retail participants lose money. A study examining trading activity on Polymarket found that the median investor lost $2 over the study period. Prediction markets are not a reliable wealth-building tool — they are closer to a speculative trading product where skill, information, and timing matter considerably.

That said, for Canadians who want to express a view on a specific economic event — say, you have a strong conviction about the direction of interest rates and want to put a small amount of money behind that view — prediction markets offer a structured, regulated way to do that.

The key is sizing your positions appropriately. Contracts start at $0.01, so it is entirely possible to participate with very small amounts while you learn how the market works.

How to Get Started

1. Download the Wealthsimple Predict app on iOS or Android
2. Log in with your existing Wealthsimple credentials, or create a new account
3. Complete the KYC (Know Your Client) survey — required for all regulated trading products in Canada
4. Fund your Predict account and browse available contracts
5. Place your first position

You must be a Canadian resident, of the age of majority in your province, with a valid SIN and government-issued photo ID.

New to Wealthsimple?

If you do not yet have a Wealthsimple account, opening one now gives you access to Wealthsimple Predict — plus you can claim a $25 cash bonus as a new client.

Sign up with referral code US0EBW, deposit at least $100 into any Wealthsimple account, and hold it for 30 days to receive your bonus — claim the Wealthsimple bonus.

Verdict

Wealthsimple Predict is a genuinely interesting product — the first time most Canadians have had regulated access to prediction markets through a mainstream financial platform. The categories available at launch (economic indicators, financial markets, climate) are meaningful for anyone with views on interest rates, commodity prices, or macroeconomic data.

Go in with realistic expectations. Prediction markets are speculative, the research suggests most retail traders lose money, and the 30-day minimum settlement period means you are committing to a position for at least a month. But for the right kind of trader — someone with specific, informed views on economic outcomes — Wealthsimple Predict offers a new and regulated way to act on them.

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🎁 Claim Your Bonus

Use referral code US0EBW to claim your Wealthsimple bonus and get access to Wealthsimple Predict with a $25 head start.